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India Inflation Outlook: Decoding the Inflation Conundrum

CPI inflation is likely to average close to 5.0% in FY22, not far from RBI's recently revised estimate of 5.1%. This will definitely come as a reprieve compared to FY21 average inflation of 6.2%. However, increasingly this outlook of probable comfort is getting challenged amidst several upside risks seemingly gaining ground - WPI inflation at never seen before levels, retail price of petrol and diesel reigning at record highs, inflation expectations lingering in double-digits.

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